Radhika Gupta, Managing Director and CEO of Edelweiss Mutual Fund, flagged India's declining fertility rate, which is now below the replacement rate, and posed a serious question for the Indian economy: “Should women work?”
In her latest social media post, Radhika was citing data from the 2024 Sample Registration System (SRS) report, which said that India's Total Fertility Rate has fallen from 2.1 to 1.9 children per woman.
Replacement rate means a country is no longer having enough children to replace its population over time.
She said that the female workforce matters much more in the current economic scenario, while highlighting that childcare and care infrastructure are the actual needs of the hour.
‘Every worker matters more’:
“India’s fertility rate falling below replacement rate should open a new economic conversation,” Radhika Gupta said in a viral X post. “India still has demographic momentum because we are a young country, but structurally, this changes the long-term math of growth.”
“When fewer children are born, every worker matters more,” she said. “Productivity matters more. Skills matter more. And female workforce participation matters much more.”
However, Radhika pointed out that this creates a tension “many developed economies have already experienced”: “As women become more educated and participate more in the workforce, fertility rates often fall further.”
The Edelweiss MF CEO said the real question is not whether women should work, because that answer is an obvious yes — “economically and socially”. The real question is: “How do we make careers and family sustainable together?”
Radhika Gupta noted that the countries that managed this relatively better did not solve it through rhetoric. “They built ecosystems: childcare, flexible work, shorter commutes, family support systems, organised care infrastructure.”
She noted that for years, Indians thought of infrastructure as roads, ports and power. However, she said, “In the next phase of India’s growth, childcare and care infrastructure may become equally important economic infrastructure.”
“Not just AI. Human participation itself may become one of the biggest growth drivers,” she added.
What did the report say?
According to the 2024 SRS report, most states are now below the replacement fertility benchmark of 2.1.
Only six states — Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand — continue to record fertility rates above the replacement level, the report said.
Delhi registered the lowest fertility rate in the country, with an average of 1.2 births per woman.
Why is the replacement level important?
A Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 is generally regarded as the level required to maintain a stable population, according to the demographers. When fertility remains below this threshold for extended periods, population growth gradually slows and may eventually decline.
Experts noted that while India’s population is still growing, the sustained decline in fertility suggested that population growth could slow significantly in the coming decades, potentially leading to a shrinking population later this century.
They warned that such trends can contribute to an ageing society, a reduced working-age population and growing pressure on welfare and healthcare systems.
